Stats Dive: xG Refresher
Um, so what the heck is xG?
xG is a stat often bandied about in fantasy football circles, but it’s easy to forget what the metric represents and how best to use it.
Expected Goals
xG or Expected Goals is a measure of the probability a goal will be scored from a given chance. For example, a simple tap-in chance would have a high xG, say 0.9 or 90% of the time the chance would result in a goal.
In FPL, xG is generally looked at over a period of games and is an estimate of the number of goals that a team or player was expected to score given the opportunities they had.
It is important to note that despite the name, xG is not a forecast of future performance.
Team xG
xG can be used to identify teams that have had the highest number of likely goal scoring chances.
As shown in the table below, so far this season Manchester City has the highest xG (23.8) or the highest number of chances that would on average be converted.
Leicester has the highest delta xG (6.1), which is the difference between goals scored and xG. The high delta xG tells us the foxes have scored more goals than their chances would normally produce.
Player xG
Generally, players with higher xG score more goals and is a useful metric for identifying prospects for your FPL team.
Here’s a look at the top 20 players for xG in the season to date, along with the actual goals scored and delta xG.
Aguero has the highest player xG reflecting the high number of quality goal scoring opportunities he’s getting each game. He looks like a smart pick, but FPL price and Pep’s rotation roulette need to be factored in.
Looking at Liverpool’s attacking options, Salah’s xG is higher than Mane’s (3.8 v 2.6). If you’re comparing these two players, it highlights the importance of shot accuracy and conversion for Mane, as he’s getting fewer quality chances than Salah.
Abraham has the highest delta xG, indicating he has scored more goals than the quality of his chances would suggest. Is he a good finisher or just lucky? His overall shot accuracy stats support the former.
How should I use xG?
If a player has a consistently high xG (routinely getting good goalscoring chances), or a high delta xG (potentially an excellent finisher), put them on your watchlist.
Then look at:
Player’s performance stats - shots shots, chances, penalty box touches.
Team xG - does does the team create lots of chances and what is the target player’s contribution - the greater the contribution the better.
Previous and upcoming fixtures.
Happy hunting
- Si